Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →63.0%
Milan
21.8%
Draw
15.2%
Sassuolo
Expected Goals (xG)
1.83
Milan
vs
0.76
Sassuolo
Markets
BTTS44.4%
Over 0.592.7%
Over 1.572.8%
Over 2.547.8%
Over 3.526.1%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-0
13.9%
2-0
12.6%
1-1
10.3%
2-1
9.5%
3-0
7.7%
0-0
7.3%
0-1
5.9%
3-1
5.8%
1-2
4.0%
2-2
3.6%
4-0
3.5%
4-1
2.7%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).