Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →78.4%
Benfica
14.6%
Draw
6.9%
Setubal
Expected Goals (xG)
2.33
Benfica
vs
0.52
Setubal
Markets
BTTS36.4%
Over 0.594.5%
Over 1.577.5%
Over 2.554.3%
Over 3.532.0%
Most Likely Scorelines
2-0
15.7%
1-0
13.8%
3-0
12.2%
2-1
8.2%
4-0
7.1%
1-1
6.7%
3-1
6.4%
0-0
5.5%
4-1
3.7%
0-1
3.3%
5-0
3.3%
2-2
2.1%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).