Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →60.6%
Derby
23.7%
Draw
15.7%
Reading
Expected Goals (xG)
1.86
Derby
vs
0.84
Reading
Markets
BTTS48.8%
Over 0.592.5%
Over 1.575.9%
Over 2.550.6%
Over 3.528.6%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-0
11.7%
2-0
11.6%
1-1
11.3%
2-1
9.8%
0-0
7.5%
3-0
7.2%
3-1
6.0%
0-1
4.9%
1-2
4.4%
2-2
4.1%
4-0
3.3%
4-1
2.8%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).