Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →49.1%
Vallecano
30.0%
Draw
20.9%
Deportivo Alavés
Expected Goals (xG)
1.26
Vallecano
vs
0.72
Deportivo Alavés
Markets
BTTS36.9%
Over 0.585.9%
Over 1.559.0%
Over 2.531.7%
Over 3.513.9%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-0
17.2%
0-0
14.1%
1-1
12.8%
2-0
11.0%
0-1
9.7%
2-1
7.9%
3-0
4.6%
1-2
4.5%
0-2
3.6%
3-1
3.3%
2-2
2.8%
4-0
1.5%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).