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26 Apr 2025 · 12:30

Dixon-Coles Prediction

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36.1%
AFC Wimbledon
31.7%
Draw
32.3%
Port Vale

Expected Goals (xG)

0.94

AFC Wimbledon

vs
0.87

Port Vale

Markets

BTTS34.9%
Over 0.584.2%
Over 1.553.5%
Over 2.527.3%
Over 3.511.1%

Most Likely Scorelines

1-0
15.9%
0-0
15.8%
0-1
14.8%
1-1
12.9%
2-0
7.2%
2-1
6.3%
0-2
6.2%
1-2
5.8%
2-2
2.7%
3-0
2.3%
3-1
2.0%
0-3
1.8%

Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).