Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →50.3%
Sp Lisbon
25.7%
Draw
24.0%
Benfica
Expected Goals (xG)
1.44
Sp Lisbon
vs
0.89
Benfica
Markets
BTTS44.5%
Over 0.590.8%
Over 1.567.1%
Over 2.541.2%
Over 3.520.7%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-0
14.5%
1-1
11.9%
2-0
10.0%
0-1
9.2%
0-0
9.2%
2-1
9.0%
1-2
5.6%
3-0
4.8%
3-1
4.3%
2-2
4.0%
0-2
3.9%
3-2
1.9%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).