Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →78.2%
Matlock Town
14.5%
Draw
7.2%
Spal
Expected Goals (xG)
2.40
Matlock Town
vs
0.57
Spal
Markets
BTTS39.5%
Over 0.595.1%
Over 1.579.5%
Over 2.557.2%
Over 3.534.8%
Most Likely Scorelines
2-0
14.7%
1-0
12.5%
3-0
11.8%
2-1
8.4%
4-0
7.1%
1-1
6.8%
3-1
6.8%
0-0
4.9%
4-1
4.1%
5-0
3.4%
0-1
3.1%
2-2
2.4%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).