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12 May 2017

Dixon-Coles Prediction

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72.9%
Everton
20.3%
Draw
6.8%
Watford

Expected Goals (xG)

2.06

Everton

vs
0.51

Watford

Markets

BTTS35.9%
Over 0.591.2%
Over 1.573.8%
Over 2.547.4%
Over 3.525.7%

Most Likely Scorelines

2-0
16.3%
1-0
14.7%
3-0
11.2%
1-1
9.1%
0-0
8.8%
2-1
8.3%
4-0
5.8%
3-1
5.7%
4-1
2.9%
0-1
2.8%
5-0
2.4%
2-2
2.1%

Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).