Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →36.0%
Tondela
32.6%
Draw
31.4%
Casa Pia
Expected Goals (xG)
1.04
Tondela
vs
0.95
Casa Pia
Markets
BTTS40.3%
Over 0.585.4%
Over 1.559.8%
Over 2.531.9%
Over 3.514.0%
Most Likely Scorelines
0-0
14.6%
1-1
14.3%
1-0
13.4%
0-1
12.2%
2-0
7.4%
2-1
7.0%
1-2
6.4%
0-2
6.2%
2-2
3.3%
3-0
2.5%
3-1
2.4%
1-3
2.0%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).