Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →55.3%
Benfica
23.5%
Draw
21.2%
Sp Braga
Expected Goals (xG)
1.65
Benfica
vs
0.91
Sp Braga
Markets
BTTS47.8%
Over 0.592.8%
Over 1.572.0%
Over 2.547.2%
Over 3.525.6%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-0
13.2%
1-1
11.1%
2-0
10.5%
2-1
9.6%
0-1
7.5%
0-0
7.2%
3-0
5.8%
1-2
5.3%
3-1
5.3%
2-2
4.4%
0-2
3.2%
3-2
2.4%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).