Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →20.0%
Newcastle
18.4%
Draw
61.6%
Manchester City
Expected Goals (xG)
1.30
Newcastle
vs
2.38
Manchester City
Markets
BTTS65.8%
Over 0.597.7%
Over 1.588.0%
Over 2.571.2%
Over 3.550.2%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-2
9.3%
1-1
7.6%
1-3
7.4%
0-2
7.1%
0-1
6.2%
2-2
6.0%
0-3
5.7%
2-1
5.1%
2-3
4.8%
1-4
4.4%
1-0
3.5%
0-4
3.4%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).