Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →41.5%
Alverca
33.1%
Draw
25.4%
Tondela
Expected Goals (xG)
1.12
Alverca
vs
0.81
Tondela
Markets
BTTS38.4%
Over 0.584.4%
Over 1.558.4%
Over 2.530.4%
Over 3.513.0%
Most Likely Scorelines
0-0
15.6%
1-0
15.2%
1-1
14.2%
0-1
10.8%
2-0
9.1%
2-1
7.4%
1-2
5.3%
0-2
4.8%
3-0
3.4%
2-2
3.0%
3-1
2.7%
1-3
1.4%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).