Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →32.9%
Crystal Palace
31.7%
Draw
35.4%
Aston Villa
Expected Goals (xG)
1.15
Crystal Palace
vs
1.20
Aston Villa
Markets
BTTS49.5%
Over 0.588.6%
Over 1.569.8%
Over 2.541.6%
Over 3.521.0%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-1
15.0%
0-0
11.4%
0-1
9.7%
1-0
9.2%
1-2
7.9%
2-1
7.6%
0-2
6.9%
2-0
6.3%
2-2
4.5%
1-3
3.2%
3-1
2.9%
0-3
2.8%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).