Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →69.7%
Gil Vicente
17.3%
Draw
13.0%
Arouca
Expected Goals (xG)
2.28
Gil Vicente
vs
0.86
Arouca
Markets
BTTS51.5%
Over 0.596.1%
Over 1.581.7%
Over 2.560.8%
Over 3.538.5%
Most Likely Scorelines
2-0
11.2%
1-0
10.2%
2-1
9.7%
3-0
8.5%
1-1
8.1%
3-1
7.4%
4-0
4.9%
4-1
4.2%
2-2
4.2%
0-1
4.1%
0-0
3.9%
1-2
3.7%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).