Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →18.5%
Vallecano
25.2%
Draw
56.3%
Real Madrid
Expected Goals (xG)
0.82
Vallecano
vs
1.62
Real Madrid
Markets
BTTS45.1%
Over 0.591.0%
Over 1.570.3%
Over 2.544.1%
Over 3.523.0%
Most Likely Scorelines
0-1
13.9%
1-1
11.8%
0-2
11.5%
1-2
9.4%
0-0
9.0%
1-0
6.9%
0-3
6.2%
1-3
5.1%
2-1
4.7%
2-2
3.8%
2-0
2.9%
0-4
2.5%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).