Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →82.9%
Aston Villa
13.4%
Draw
3.7%
Norwich
Expected Goals (xG)
2.64
Aston Villa
vs
0.46
Norwich
Markets
BTTS35.1%
Over 0.594.7%
Over 1.582.2%
Over 2.559.8%
Over 3.537.4%
Most Likely Scorelines
2-0
15.7%
3-0
13.8%
1-0
11.2%
4-0
9.1%
2-1
7.2%
3-1
6.4%
1-1
6.3%
0-0
5.3%
5-0
4.8%
4-1
4.2%
5-1
2.2%
2-2
1.7%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).