Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →78.4%
Benfica
14.2%
Draw
7.4%
Moreirense
Expected Goals (xG)
2.43
Benfica
vs
0.59
Moreirense
Markets
BTTS40.5%
Over 0.595.5%
Over 1.580.2%
Over 2.558.3%
Over 3.535.8%
Most Likely Scorelines
2-0
14.4%
1-0
12.1%
3-0
11.7%
2-1
8.5%
4-0
7.1%
3-1
6.9%
1-1
6.7%
0-0
4.5%
4-1
4.2%
5-0
3.5%
0-1
3.2%
2-2
2.5%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).