Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →21.0%
Newport County
20.7%
Draw
58.2%
Chesterfield
Expected Goals (xG)
1.10
Newport County
vs
1.98
Chesterfield
Markets
BTTS56.9%
Over 0.595.8%
Over 1.580.7%
Over 2.559.3%
Over 3.536.9%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-2
9.9%
1-1
9.6%
0-1
9.6%
0-2
9.0%
1-3
6.5%
0-3
6.0%
1-0
5.5%
2-1
5.5%
2-2
5.4%
0-0
4.2%
2-3
3.6%
1-4
3.2%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).