Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →33.5%
Maritimo
26.3%
Draw
40.2%
Nacional
Expected Goals (xG)
1.14
Maritimo
vs
1.28
Nacional
Markets
BTTS48.6%
Over 0.591.7%
Over 1.569.1%
Over 2.543.6%
Over 3.522.6%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-1
12.4%
0-1
11.9%
1-0
10.7%
1-2
8.3%
0-0
8.3%
2-1
7.4%
0-2
7.3%
2-0
5.8%
2-2
4.7%
1-3
3.5%
0-3
3.1%
3-1
2.8%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).