Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →45.5%
Luton
29.0%
Draw
25.6%
Reading
Expected Goals (xG)
1.39
Luton
vs
0.98
Reading
Markets
BTTS47.9%
Over 0.589.7%
Over 1.569.5%
Over 2.542.3%
Over 3.521.6%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-1
13.7%
1-0
12.0%
0-0
10.3%
2-0
9.0%
2-1
8.9%
0-1
8.2%
1-2
6.2%
0-2
4.5%
2-2
4.3%
3-0
4.2%
3-1
4.1%
1-3
2.0%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).