Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →43.1%
Derby
29.9%
Draw
27.0%
Stoke
Expected Goals (xG)
1.32
Derby
vs
0.99
Stoke
Markets
BTTS47.3%
Over 0.589.1%
Over 1.568.4%
Over 2.540.9%
Over 3.520.4%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-1
14.1%
1-0
11.9%
0-0
10.9%
0-1
8.7%
2-0
8.6%
2-1
8.6%
1-2
6.4%
0-2
4.9%
2-2
4.3%
3-0
3.8%
3-1
3.8%
1-3
2.1%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).