Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →27.9%
Ponferradina
22.8%
Draw
49.2%
Almeria
Expected Goals (xG)
1.31
Ponferradina
vs
1.80
Almeria
Markets
BTTS60.8%
Over 0.595.6%
Over 1.581.6%
Over 2.560.1%
Over 3.537.8%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-1
10.4%
1-2
9.5%
0-1
8.1%
0-2
7.3%
2-1
6.9%
2-2
6.2%
1-0
5.9%
1-3
5.7%
0-3
4.4%
0-0
4.4%
2-0
3.8%
2-3
3.7%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).