Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →86.0%
Manchester City
10.8%
Draw
3.2%
Watford
Expected Goals (xG)
3.05
Manchester City
vs
0.53
Watford
Markets
BTTS40.0%
Over 0.596.6%
Over 1.587.9%
Over 2.569.4%
Over 3.548.1%
Most Likely Scorelines
3-0
13.1%
2-0
12.9%
4-0
10.0%
1-0
7.9%
3-1
7.0%
2-1
6.9%
5-0
6.1%
4-1
5.3%
1-1
5.2%
0-0
3.4%
5-1
3.3%
3-2
1.9%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).