Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →35.4%
Belenenses
28.9%
Draw
35.7%
Maritimo
Expected Goals (xG)
1.04
Belenenses
vs
1.05
Maritimo
Markets
BTTS41.3%
Over 0.588.2%
Over 1.561.1%
Over 2.534.7%
Over 3.515.9%
Most Likely Scorelines
0-1
13.6%
1-0
13.5%
1-1
12.9%
0-0
11.8%
1-2
7.1%
2-1
7.0%
0-2
6.8%
2-0
6.7%
2-2
3.7%
1-3
2.5%
3-1
2.4%
0-3
2.4%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).