Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →64.2%
Famalicao
23.2%
Draw
12.6%
Belenenses
Expected Goals (xG)
1.62
Famalicao
vs
0.55
Belenenses
Markets
BTTS33.3%
Over 0.589.0%
Over 1.563.2%
Over 2.536.8%
Over 3.517.4%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-0
19.0%
2-0
15.0%
0-0
11.0%
1-1
9.7%
2-1
8.2%
3-0
8.1%
0-1
6.7%
3-1
4.4%
4-0
3.3%
1-2
2.8%
2-2
2.2%
4-1
1.8%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).