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23 Nov 2024 · 12:30

Dixon-Coles Prediction

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37.0%
Grimsby
28.0%
Draw
35.0%
Colchester

Expected Goals (xG)

1.12

Grimsby

vs
1.08

Colchester

Markets

BTTS44.1%
Over 0.589.5%
Over 1.564.2%
Over 2.537.9%
Over 3.518.2%

Most Likely Scorelines

1-0
12.9%
1-1
12.9%
0-1
12.4%
0-0
10.5%
2-1
7.5%
1-2
7.3%
2-0
6.9%
0-2
6.5%
2-2
4.1%
3-1
2.8%
1-3
2.6%
3-0
2.6%

Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).