Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →67.0%
Notts County
20.7%
Draw
12.3%
Harrogate
Expected Goals (xG)
1.83
Notts County
vs
0.62
Harrogate
Markets
BTTS38.4%
Over 0.591.8%
Over 1.569.8%
Over 2.544.4%
Over 3.523.2%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-0
16.2%
2-0
14.5%
1-1
9.4%
2-1
9.0%
3-0
8.8%
0-0
8.2%
0-1
5.8%
3-1
5.5%
4-0
4.0%
1-2
3.0%
2-2
2.8%
4-1
2.5%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).