Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →7.6%
Watford
25.4%
Draw
67.0%
Burnley
Expected Goals (xG)
0.37
Watford
vs
1.57
Burnley
Markets
BTTS24.9%
Over 0.584.8%
Over 1.558.2%
Over 2.530.5%
Over 3.513.1%
Most Likely Scorelines
0-1
22.0%
0-2
17.8%
0-0
15.2%
0-3
9.3%
1-1
9.0%
1-2
6.5%
1-0
4.6%
0-4
3.6%
1-3
3.4%
2-1
1.5%
1-4
1.3%
2-2
1.2%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).