Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →55.7%
Burgos
26.6%
Draw
17.7%
Fuenlabrada
Expected Goals (xG)
1.45
Burgos
vs
0.68
Fuenlabrada
Markets
BTTS37.7%
Over 0.588.2%
Over 1.562.6%
Over 2.535.8%
Over 3.516.7%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-0
17.3%
2-0
12.5%
0-0
11.8%
1-1
11.6%
2-1
8.5%
0-1
8.2%
3-0
6.0%
3-1
4.1%
1-2
4.0%
2-2
2.9%
0-2
2.8%
4-0
2.2%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).