Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →59.1%
Castellon
20.2%
Draw
20.7%
Sporting Gijón
Expected Goals (xG)
2.15
Castellon
vs
1.20
Sporting Gijón
Markets
BTTS61.7%
Over 0.596.6%
Over 1.584.7%
Over 2.565.1%
Over 3.543.1%
Most Likely Scorelines
2-1
9.7%
1-1
9.0%
2-0
8.1%
1-0
7.6%
3-1
7.0%
2-2
5.9%
3-0
5.8%
1-2
5.4%
0-1
4.3%
3-2
4.2%
4-1
3.7%
0-0
3.4%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).