Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →35.6%
Manchester City
25.0%
Draw
39.3%
Guiseley
Expected Goals (xG)
1.31
Manchester City
vs
1.39
Guiseley
Markets
BTTS54.4%
Over 0.593.6%
Over 1.574.7%
Over 2.550.5%
Over 3.528.5%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-1
11.9%
0-1
9.7%
1-0
9.2%
1-2
8.5%
2-1
8.0%
0-2
6.5%
0-0
6.4%
2-0
5.8%
2-2
5.6%
1-3
3.9%
3-1
3.5%
0-3
3.0%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).