Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →38.3%
Bournemouth
28.3%
Draw
33.3%
Aston Villa
Expected Goals (xG)
1.47
Bournemouth
vs
1.36
Aston Villa
Markets
BTTS58.9%
Over 0.592.5%
Over 1.579.1%
Over 2.553.8%
Over 3.531.5%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-1
13.4%
2-1
8.7%
1-2
8.0%
0-0
7.5%
1-0
7.0%
0-1
6.4%
2-0
6.4%
2-2
5.9%
0-2
5.5%
3-1
4.3%
1-3
3.6%
3-0
3.1%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).