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16 Jan 2026 · 19:45

Dixon-Coles Prediction

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12.2%
Pisa
20.3%
Draw
67.5%
Atalanta

Expected Goals (xG)

0.67

Pisa

vs
1.93

Atalanta

Markets

BTTS41.5%
Over 0.592.7%
Over 1.573.1%
Over 2.548.2%
Over 3.526.4%

Most Likely Scorelines

0-1
14.5%
0-2
13.8%
1-1
9.4%
1-2
9.3%
0-3
8.9%
0-0
7.3%
1-3
6.0%
1-0
5.1%
0-4
4.3%
2-1
3.2%
2-2
3.1%
1-4
2.9%

Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).