Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →50.1%
Modena
29.8%
Draw
20.2%
Perugia
Expected Goals (xG)
1.41
Modena
vs
0.80
Perugia
Markets
BTTS43.0%
Over 0.587.8%
Over 1.566.1%
Over 2.538.1%
Over 3.518.3%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-0
14.2%
1-1
13.6%
0-0
12.2%
2-0
10.9%
2-1
8.7%
0-1
7.6%
3-0
5.1%
1-2
5.0%
3-1
4.1%
0-2
3.5%
2-2
3.5%
4-0
1.8%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).