Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →31.9%
Man United
26.6%
Draw
41.5%
Chelsea
Expected Goals (xG)
1.44
Man United
vs
1.67
Chelsea
Markets
BTTS63.4%
Over 0.594.1%
Over 1.583.2%
Over 2.560.1%
Over 3.537.7%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-1
12.2%
1-2
8.9%
2-1
7.7%
2-2
6.5%
0-2
6.2%
0-0
5.9%
0-1
5.9%
1-3
5.0%
1-0
5.0%
2-0
4.7%
3-1
3.7%
2-3
3.6%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).