Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →31.7%
Alverca
26.4%
Draw
41.9%
Guimaraes
Expected Goals (xG)
1.09
Alverca
vs
1.30
Guimaraes
Markets
BTTS47.7%
Over 0.591.4%
Over 1.568.3%
Over 2.542.7%
Over 3.521.9%
Most Likely Scorelines
0-1
12.5%
1-1
12.4%
1-0
10.6%
0-0
8.6%
1-2
8.4%
0-2
7.7%
2-1
7.1%
2-0
5.4%
2-2
4.6%
1-3
3.7%
0-3
3.4%
3-1
2.6%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).