Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →60.5%
Burgos
28.2%
Draw
11.4%
Lugo
Expected Goals (xG)
1.34
Burgos
vs
0.41
Lugo
Markets
BTTS24.7%
Over 0.582.7%
Over 1.552.1%
Over 2.525.6%
Over 3.510.1%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-0
23.4%
0-0
17.3%
2-0
15.6%
1-1
9.5%
0-1
7.2%
3-0
7.0%
2-1
6.4%
3-1
2.9%
4-0
2.3%
1-2
2.0%
0-2
1.5%
2-2
1.3%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).