Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →52.9%
Swindon
23.5%
Draw
23.6%
Gillingham
Expected Goals (xG)
1.66
Swindon
vs
1.02
Gillingham
Markets
BTTS51.3%
Over 0.593.6%
Over 1.574.3%
Over 2.550.2%
Over 3.528.2%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-0
11.8%
1-1
11.1%
2-1
9.6%
2-0
9.5%
0-1
7.4%
0-0
6.4%
1-2
5.9%
3-1
5.3%
3-0
5.2%
2-2
4.9%
0-2
3.5%
3-2
2.7%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).