Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →10.1%
Casa Pia
16.2%
Draw
73.7%
Benfica
Expected Goals (xG)
0.70
Casa Pia
vs
2.29
Benfica
Markets
BTTS44.8%
Over 0.595.3%
Over 1.579.6%
Over 2.557.4%
Over 3.535.0%
Most Likely Scorelines
0-2
13.2%
0-1
11.9%
0-3
10.1%
1-2
9.2%
1-1
7.7%
1-3
7.0%
0-4
5.8%
0-0
4.7%
1-4
4.0%
1-0
3.9%
2-2
3.2%
2-1
2.8%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).