Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →50.1%
Malaga
23.1%
Draw
26.8%
Sociedad
Expected Goals (xG)
1.78
Malaga
vs
1.24
Sociedad
Markets
BTTS58.9%
Over 0.595.2%
Over 1.580.2%
Over 2.558.0%
Over 3.535.6%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-1
10.7%
2-1
9.6%
1-0
8.8%
2-0
7.7%
1-2
6.7%
0-1
6.2%
2-2
5.9%
3-1
5.7%
0-0
4.8%
3-0
4.6%
0-2
3.8%
3-2
3.5%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).