Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →47.3%
Notts County
26.1%
Draw
26.6%
Crewe
Expected Goals (xG)
1.40
Notts County
vs
0.97
Crewe
Markets
BTTS46.2%
Over 0.591.1%
Over 1.567.9%
Over 2.542.1%
Over 3.521.4%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-0
13.6%
1-1
12.2%
0-1
9.6%
2-0
9.2%
0-0
8.9%
2-1
8.9%
1-2
6.2%
0-2
4.4%
2-2
4.3%
3-0
4.3%
3-1
4.1%
3-2
2.0%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).