Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →18.1%
Cheltenham
24.1%
Draw
57.8%
Derby
Expected Goals (xG)
0.69
Cheltenham
vs
1.51
Derby
Markets
BTTS38.1%
Over 0.589.9%
Over 1.563.7%
Over 2.537.8%
Over 3.518.2%
Most Likely Scorelines
0-1
17.6%
0-2
12.6%
1-1
10.6%
0-0
10.1%
1-2
8.7%
1-0
8.6%
0-3
6.3%
1-3
4.4%
2-1
4.0%
2-2
3.0%
2-0
2.7%
0-4
2.4%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).