Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →44.0%
Spal
30.0%
Draw
25.9%
Benevento
Expected Goals (xG)
1.35
Spal
vs
0.98
Benevento
Markets
BTTS47.7%
Over 0.589.1%
Over 1.569.0%
Over 2.541.4%
Over 3.520.8%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-1
14.1%
1-0
11.8%
0-0
10.9%
2-0
8.9%
2-1
8.7%
0-1
8.2%
1-2
6.3%
0-2
4.7%
2-2
4.3%
3-0
4.0%
3-1
3.9%
1-3
2.1%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).