Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →64.2%
Hoffenheim
22.2%
Draw
13.6%
St Pauli
Expected Goals (xG)
1.97
Hoffenheim
vs
0.80
St Pauli
Markets
BTTS48.1%
Over 0.593.0%
Over 1.577.2%
Over 2.552.4%
Over 3.530.2%
Most Likely Scorelines
2-0
12.2%
1-0
11.6%
1-1
10.6%
2-1
9.7%
3-0
8.0%
0-0
7.0%
3-1
6.4%
0-1
4.2%
4-0
4.0%
1-2
3.9%
2-2
3.9%
4-1
3.2%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).