Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →9.6%
Casa Pia
18.5%
Draw
71.9%
Benfica
Expected Goals (xG)
0.70
Casa Pia
vs
2.24
Benfica
Markets
BTTS45.3%
Over 0.594.2%
Over 1.579.6%
Over 2.556.1%
Over 3.533.8%
Most Likely Scorelines
0-2
13.3%
0-1
11.4%
0-3
9.9%
1-2
9.3%
1-1
8.8%
1-3
6.9%
0-0
5.8%
0-4
5.5%
1-4
3.9%
2-2
3.2%
1-0
3.2%
2-1
2.9%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).