Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →80.3%
Liverpool
14.1%
Draw
5.6%
Watford
Expected Goals (xG)
2.78
Liverpool
vs
0.67
Watford
Markets
BTTS46.7%
Over 0.596.0%
Over 1.586.8%
Over 2.567.1%
Over 3.545.4%
Most Likely Scorelines
2-0
12.2%
3-0
11.3%
2-1
8.2%
1-0
8.0%
4-0
7.9%
3-1
7.6%
1-1
6.7%
4-1
5.3%
5-0
4.4%
0-0
4.0%
5-1
3.0%
2-2
2.8%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).