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HHT: 10CSV

25 Mar 2016

Dixon-Coles Prediction

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66.0%
Northampton
21.0%
Draw
13.0%
Newport County

Expected Goals (xG)

1.82

Northampton

vs
0.65

Newport County

Markets

BTTS39.7%
Over 0.592.0%
Over 1.570.3%
Over 2.544.9%
Over 3.523.7%

Most Likely Scorelines

1-0
15.8%
2-0
14.0%
1-1
9.6%
2-1
9.1%
3-0
8.5%
0-0
8.0%
0-1
5.9%
3-1
5.5%
4-0
3.9%
1-2
3.2%
2-2
3.0%
4-1
2.5%

Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).