Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →38.9%
Alcorcon
30.7%
Draw
30.5%
Villarreal B
Expected Goals (xG)
1.07
Alcorcon
vs
0.91
Villarreal B
Markets
BTTS39.0%
Over 0.586.3%
Over 1.558.6%
Over 2.531.6%
Over 3.513.8%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-0
14.9%
0-0
13.7%
1-1
13.3%
0-1
12.7%
2-0
7.9%
2-1
7.2%
1-2
6.1%
0-2
5.7%
2-2
3.3%
3-0
2.8%
3-1
2.6%
1-3
1.8%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).