Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →31.4%
Lugo
30.9%
Draw
37.7%
Villarreal B
Expected Goals (xG)
0.92
Lugo
vs
1.04
Villarreal B
Markets
BTTS38.6%
Over 0.586.0%
Over 1.558.0%
Over 2.531.1%
Over 3.513.5%
Most Likely Scorelines
0-1
14.8%
0-0
14.0%
1-1
13.3%
1-0
13.1%
0-2
7.6%
1-2
7.0%
2-1
6.2%
2-0
6.0%
2-2
3.2%
0-3
2.6%
1-3
2.4%
3-1
1.9%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).