⚽ FootballData
Derby

Home

0 – 1
AHT: 01CSV

07 May 2016

Dixon-Coles Prediction

View all models →
28.9%
Derby
26.8%
Draw
44.2%
Ipswich

Expected Goals (xG)

1.23

Derby

vs
1.57

Ipswich

Markets

BTTS57.1%
Over 0.593.0%
Over 1.578.0%
Over 2.553.2%
Over 3.530.9%

Most Likely Scorelines

1-1
12.7%
1-2
9.2%
0-1
8.5%
0-2
7.5%
2-1
7.2%
0-0
7.0%
1-0
6.5%
2-2
5.7%
1-3
4.8%
2-0
4.6%
0-3
3.9%
2-3
3.0%

Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).